The powers that be in the NHL don’t always get it right. But every year, their troubles are washed away by the most exciting postseason in pro sports.
It’s pretty hard to screw up the race for the Stanley Cup. It’s even harder to predict a winner these days. Take a look at the futures market – there are three co-favorites at 4-1 to win it all, with another four teams priced below 10-1 and yet another foursome of compelling dark horses at 15-1 or shorter. This is a Cup field rich in possibility for value-minded handicappers.
But let’s get chalky for a second. Which two teams will reach the Stanley Cup finals? With five games left to go in the regular season, the only team with a little bit of breathing room is the Buffalo Sabres. They were on top of the Eastern Conference by seven points at the time of publication and almost certain to clinch the top seed. That gives Buffalo home-ice advantage at least all the way to the finals. That makes the Sabres the favorite at 9-5 to win the East. But do they have the goaltending to carry them there? Ryan Miller is 15th in the league save percentage at .910. He doesn’t need to stop them all; Buffalo leads the NHL with 3.63 goals per game. Let’s see what happens when the games get closer. Personally, I like the well-rounded Ottawa Senators to finally reach the Promised Land.
The West? Nashville. The acquisition of Peter Forsberg turned the Predators into an instant and legitimate Cup contender. It won’t be easy; the Preds are in first place in the conference right now, but could easily slip all the way to seventh in the hypercompetitive West. However, Nashville has two goalies (Tomas Vokoun and Chris Mason) in the Top 5 in save percentage, and once Martin Erat gets healthy, he joins Forsberg and Paul Kariya on the top line. Add three first-round picks on defense, fold in depth at every position, toss well, and you have the recipe for a Stanley Cup.
There’s a reason they call it March Madness.
The NCAA men’s basketball Tournament is always good for a major storyline or two. There are two surefire ways to make headlines at the big dance: One, play extremely well; and two, do something shocking. George Mason might not be around this year, but we’re still not lacking in the surprise department.
The near-total absence of Cinderella teams has been the main theme of the 2007 Tournament. The Sweet 16 was filled with excellent clubs – the lowest seed was No. 7 UNLV, and the Rebels could easily have been placed higher. That makes this year’s Tourney the first since 1995 to feature no double-digit seeds in the Sweet 16.
That doesn’t mean there weren’t some head-scratchers in the opening rounds. No. 6 Notre Dame wasn’t generating a lot of confidence heading into the big dance, but to lose by 10 points to No. 11 Winthrop in Round One? South Bend is going to be stewing over that one for a while. Duke fans won’t be terribly pleased about losing to No. 11 VCU, either. At least the 2007-08 Blue Devils will be forced to learn how to escape full-court pressure.
With so many great programs battling for college supremacy, it can’t be considered much of a shock that top seeds and Final Four candidates Kansas and North Carolina failed to make it to Atlanta. There is, however, one big surprise that could affect the No. 1 Florida Gators, and that is the breakup between the Kentucky Wildcats and their longtime coach, Tubby Smith. Speculation has begun that Florida coach Billy Donovan may want to return to Lexington, where he was an assistant under Rick Pitino. This is a lousy time for the Gators to face such distractions.
Sticking with Kentucky, let’s round off this list of Tournament oddities with Randolph Morris. On Mar. 18, he scored 22 points in a second-round loss to Kansas. Five days later, Morris was a member of the New York Knicks. They sure grow up fast, don’t they?
Please – stop throwing things at the computer.
Of course Mixed Martial Arts is not only alive and kicking, but spreading like wildfire as well. And I’m not just saying this because Bodog Fight is part of the MMA landscape. Fact is, in a highly saturated sports world, MMA is one of the few growing sports that has found the critical mass to keep growing.
It seems odd that a sport with thousands of years of tradition is considered “new.” Most casual observers in North America equate MMA with the Ultimate Fighting Championship promotion, and it can’t be denied that UFC’s 1993 debut was shockingly and memorably bloody. But the brand of UFC fighting you see today is much closer to pankration, the ancient Greek hybrid of unarmed combat disciplines that historians trace to the Olympic Games of 648 BCE.
UFC’s ascension from small PPV numbers to a spot on basic cable may never have happened if the United States government (most notably John McCain) hadn’t attempted at every opportunity to marginalize the sport. But it wasn’t just governmental pressure, nor UFC’s own ambition, that brought the promotion to where it is today. Instead of, say, a shootfighter matching up against a sumo wrestler, all fighters have gravitated out of sheer competitive necessity to styles that echo pankration. Elements of that original style can be found in every brand of MMA, in North America, Japan and around the world.
Perhaps most importantly, MMA’s growth as a televised sport has much to do with the shrinking popularity of professional wrestling. That form of “sports entertainment” used to give audiences a controlled dose of violence that was both realistic enough and tame enough for the general public to tolerate, if not enjoy. Not any more. The rise of the Internet made sure that nearly everyone was aware that pro-wrestling was more entertainment than sport – if organizations like WWE hadn’t already made that perfectly clear with their increasingly unrealistic matches. MMA organizations like UFC, Bodog Fight and Japan’s K-1 and PRIDE, on the other hand, are following the golden rule of mass media: Give the people what they want.
After nearly a month of Madness, they’re finally down to four. On Saturday the Final Four tips off in Georgia with Georgetown taking on Ohio State, and UCLA facing Florida in a rematch of last year’s tournament final.
Let’s start with the Buckeyes and Hoyas. The focus of this game should be the battle of the two seven-footers – the Buckeyes’ Greg Oden and the Hoyas’ Roy Hibbert. Despite Oden’s foul-shortened performance in the Sweet 16, he has put up slightly better numbers so far. Hibbert has averaged 13 points and 11.5 rebounds in the tournament, while Oden has been good for 14.7 points and 8.5 rebounds a night. If Oden and Hibbert cancel each other out, which the stats say they might, it will be up to their supporting casts to get them through to the final.
This could give Georgetown the advantage. Big East Player of the Year Jeff Green gives the Hoyas another potent scorer in the paint and with Oden stuck on Hibbert all game, this could leave Green with a number of scoring chances. The Buckeyes are a slim 1-point favorite in the game, but it will be the Hoyas who will be moving on to the national championship game.
In the other Final Four contest we get a rematch of last year’s final between Florida and UCLA. Last year the Gators blasted the Bruins 73-57 as a 1-point favorite. If the Bruins don’t want the same thing to happen again this year, they’ll need Arron Afflalo to be on his game. Afflalo has been incredibly inconsistent so far in the tournament. Afflalo started off all right, shooting 8-for-15 in UCLA’s tournament open versus Weber State , but he went on to shoot a combined 5-for-22 in the Bruins’ next two games. Afflalo got back on track with a 10-of-15 performance in the Elite Eight, which is close to what the Bruins will be looking for on Saturday.
But even if they get a good performance from Afflalo, I don’t see the Bruins winning. The Gators are just too good. They can score inside with Joakim Noah and Al Horford, and if that’s not working they can go outside to Lee Humphrey and Taurean Green like they did versus Oregon.
Maybe every NCAA Tournament should start with 16 teams.
The usual suspects in the conventional sports media are crying a river of tears. Boo-hoo, no March Madness Cinderella stories to tell. Heaven forbid the best teams in men’s college basketball should actually survive this single-elimination gauntlet. Personally, I’m stoked that all the No. 1 seeds are still alive. And three of the No. 2 seeds. And three of the No. 3 seeds. This level of competition can only lead to outstanding basketball games from here on in – which is why I believe this will be the best Tournament that ever was.
Granted, with 336 teams competing in Division I this season, it takes a pretty good team just to make it to the big dance. But how badly, unless you’re an alumnus, did you want to see the Texas A&M Corpus Christi Islanders in action? And does having your campus in the middle of a swamp really make you an islander? It’s fun to see low major representatives like TAMU-CC play their unusual styles, and they can even be successful against the right opponent on the right day. Their charms invariably wear thin after a round or two.
And then there are the mid-major clubs. This year’s Sweet 16 includes three teams that would have been considered Cinderellas in seasons past: the Southern Illinois Salukis, the Butler Bulldogs, and the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels. They’ll be underdogs for however long they last, but if one or more of them should make the Final Four, it won’t be much of a shock. All three have spent plenty of time in the college rankings this year – finally, some dap for the mid-majors.
Oh, there are some other teams that may pique your interest: UNC, Ohio State, Kansas, UCLA, Florida and Georgetown, for example. But there are no doubt some handicappers who would have preferred a few more opportunities to cash in on the unknowns like TAMU-CC. Did you take the Islanders at +13.5 versus Wisconsin? Then you have one more reason why this is one hell of a Tournament – they lost 76-63.
Now buy a keg and invite your friends over to watch some great basketball.
The Sweet 16 hits the court on Thursday and if the first weekend of March Madness means anything, the favorites should be making plans for the Elite Eight. Or should they?
The Sweet Sixteen gets started on Thursday when No. 4 seed Southern Illinois takes on No. 1 Kansas in San Jose. Both the Salukis and the Jayhawks have cruised through the first two rounds so far, but the easy road ends for Southern Illinois ends here. The Salukis’ offense just doesn’t stack up versus the superior scoring of the Jayhawks.
Next up at the HP Pavilion, No. 3 Pittsburgh faces No. 2 UCLA. If you’re looking for a third-round upset this could be it. The Bruins could have been a No. 1 seed if they hadn’t choked in the Pac-10 tournament. UCLA started the NCAA Tourney off on the right foot by blasting Weber State 79-58, but in Round 2 they had a little more trouble in their 54-49 win over Indiana. The difference was in the performance of Arron Afflalo, who scored 22 points versus Weber State but only had 10 points on a poor 2-of-11 shooting versus Indiana. If Afflalo struggles versus Pittsburgh, the Bruins are finished. Sez here that seven-footer Aaron Gray and the rest of the Panthers are headed to the Elite Eight.
The other two Sweet 16 matchups on Thursday are being played in San Antonio. First up is No. 3 Texas A&M versus No. 2 Memphis. The Aggies have received a combined 46 points from Acie Law in the first two rounds, and it will be up to Law to carry them again. Texas A&M has a couple of other scoring threats in Dominique Kirk and Joseph Jones, but Law is the key. Memphis should have shaken off the stigma of playing in the Conference-USA by knocking off Nevada 78-62 in Round 2. The Tigers fight the Law on Thursday, and the Law wins as Texas A&M goes on.
Finally on Thursday, No. 5 Tennessee tangles with No. 1 Ohio State. The Volunteers slaughtered Long Beach State 121-86 in Round 1, but got a scare versus Virginia in their 77-74 win in Round 2. And that was nothing like the scare Ohio State suffered by narrowly getting past Xavier in Round 2. If Ron Lewis had missed that late second-half three-pointer, the Buckeyes would be done. Chris Lofton has been money for Tennessee so far, but Greg Oden will be money on Thursday. Ohio State moves on.
Betting on the NCAA Tournament is a crapshoot. You could go with the favorites throughout the entire tournament, but even if you do end up with a profit it won’t be much.
To make any real money on the tournament you’ve got to make a lot of bets against the spread. That means going with the underdog ATS more than half of the time. In last year’s tournament a healthy mix of bets on favorites and underdogs could have earned you that profit we talked about earlier.
In the first round of last year’s tournament it was almost a dead-heat between favorites and underdogs ATS. In the 32 games, the favorites were 15-16-1 ATS. A lot of the favorites did win their games, but they weren’t able to cover the large spread the oddsmakers gave them. A few of these include Connecticut, which failed to cover 20 points versus Albany, and Texas, which couldn’t cover 11 points against Pennsylvania. Unfortunately for bettors, simply betting against a team that has been given a huge spread to cover isn’t an exact science. Take UCLA last year, for example. The Bruins were able to cover a 17-point spread against Belmont in the first round, so betting against the Bruins would not have paid off.
After getting past round one, bettors didn’t have it any easier last year. The underdogs bit back even hard in each round as the favorites went 7-9 ATS in Round 2 and 3-7 ATS in the Sweet 16 and the Elite Eight. Throw in the Final Four and add it all together and what do you get? The favorites’ ATS record for the entire tournament was 27-33-1.
Picking the underdog more than the favorite tends to pay off during March Madness, but to make some real cash you need more skill than that. Dumping all your money on underdogs may give you some profit, but your wallet will do much better if you mix and match between favorites and underdog. Now all you have to do is correctly pick the right favorites and the right underdogs. If it was that easy we’d all be Bracket Buster Champs.
Is this your first crack at filling in your NCAA Tournament bracket? Looking to kick some butt in this year’s office pool?
You may be the best worker in your office, but the real bragging rights are earned in March. Filling in your bracket correctly could mean the difference between getting that promotion and languishing in the mail room for another year. Especially if your boss is a college basketball freak.
One way to pick a successful bracket is to make a mistake. That may seem contradictory, but that’s what happened to Russell Pleasant last year. During last year’s March Madness, three million people filled out a bracket in ESPN’s March Madness game. Out of those three million people, only four correctly chose the Final Four teams. The reason there were only four is because of George Mason. The reason Pleasant ended up picking George Mason to reach the Final Four? He got them mixed up with George Washington. The small error ended up winning Pleasant $10,000 because he also picked Florida to knock off George Mason and eventually beat UCLA in the final. In case you missed last year’s tourney, that’s what actually happened.
If last year’s results prove anything you have to give at least a few Cinderella teams some respect to pick a winning bracket. Last year was the first time since 1980 that the Final Four did not include a No. 1 seed. Does this mean you should avoid putting any No. 1’s in the Final Four? Probably not. But, you also shouldn’t plot in all four No. 1 teams in the Final Four.
The perfect bracket no matter what year we’re talking about has to include a few of the top teams making it through the first three rounds as well as a few teams you may not have even heard of. Don’t just research the Top 5 teams in each region. Give a good look to the rest of the seeds as well. Remember, George Mason was a No. 11 seed last year.
Another way to become college basketball king in your office is to get as much info out of your fellow employees as possible, even if you have to sneak a peek at their brackets when they’re out to lunch. The office photo-copier has more uses than just work and copying various part of your body. Check out which Cinderella teams seem to be the favorites around the office and see if they really are worth picking. If you end up picking the correct Cinderella teams while everyone else picks the losers, they’ll be eating your dust before the Final Four even tips off.
What builds championship-caliber teams? Players with talent is a given, of course. But you also need drive, determination and a little luck.
What about team chemistry? It seems like chemistry hardly ever draws much attention, unless it’s bad. There’s been a fair share of bad chemistry players in the NBA over the years – Ron Artest, Steve Francis, Allen Iverson and Latrell Sprewell – but the NBA players have things a lot different than college players; private planes and a hefty salary are two of the obvious ones. College basketball also has the NCAA Tournament, a month-long tourney where winner takes all and loser takes the bus home. If chemistry, whether it’s good or bad, is going to be a factor that would be the place.
So, how do you build good team chemistry? Take the boys out on the town to get to know one another? That might be a good idea, as long as there aren’t any Indiana Pacers’ players in attendance. That may build some emotional chemistry, which is a good start, but the real chemistry is a physical element on the court. If your guard moves the ball in a way your star center isn’t comfortable with, your team may have trouble getting the ball downcourt and in the basket.
The best example of how great team chemistry can win a championship is last year’s champs, the Florida Gators. The Gators were special in how they won, because no one expected it. Go back and look at all the preseason polls from last season and look for Florida. On most of them there won’t be a word about the Gators. The talk was all about overloaded talents like Connecticut, Michigan State and Duke. All three of them had more talent than they knew what to do with, but none of them even made it to the Final Four.
The Gators may not have the blow-you-away talent that the Spartans and Huskies had last year, but what they did have were five starters who played as a unit better than any other team in the nation. What should really scare the rest of college basketball this season is that all five guys are still there. If other teams want to work on chemistry, they should study the video of Florida’s tournament run last season. It will give them fresh new material for chemistry class.
Is their a sport that has more buzz words than basketball? Is there a word or phrase in basketball that doesn’t have at least one equivalent slang word or sports cliché devised by some clever sports writer or commentator?
You can grab a rebound or you can grab a ‘board’; you can shoot from three-point range or shoot from ‘downtown’; and a Shaquille O’Neal free throw is an air ball or it’s a ‘brick’. Those are only three of the endless basketball catch-phrases. These catch-phrases were new at one time though, and were part of the endless stream of basketball buzz words.
Although it seems impossible there was a time when the NCAA Tournament was not known as March Madness. Brent Musburger is generally regarded as the individual who first used that phrase in conjunction with the college tournament, using it during CBS Sports’ coverage of the tourney back in 1982. Before Musburger attached the phrase to college hoops, March Madness actually had a strange connection to hares. March Madness comes from the phrase ‘Mad as a March Hare’. In England, the phrase March Madness may refer to wasteful spending at the end of a budget year.
The most widespread buzz word in all of basketball this season has got to be ‘Greg Oden’. The seven-foot freshman at Ohio State is easily the talk of college basketball, and his name enters numerous pro basketball discussions as well since he seems predetermined to be the No. 1 pick in the next NBA draft. The word ‘Oden’ alone has replaced ‘lottery draft’ in the basketball lexicon for this season. If things go right for the Boston Celtics in the ping-pong ball draw, ‘Oden’ should become the buzz word in most of New England this summer. (Right now the buzz word in Boston is ‘Matsuzaka’.)
Another popular buzz word these days is “run-and-gun offense”. Insert ‘run-and-gun’ and ‘Phoenix Suns’ into any search engine to see what I mean. It only takes one high-profile journalist to use the phrase and pretty soon everybody’s doing it. What started with talk about the Suns’ fun style of play has turned into a repeated story about which team is trying to duplicate the Suns’ success with the run-and-gun. If Phoenix is able to run all the way to an NBA Championship, the term may earn a permanent place in the basketball lexicon.