The No. 1 requirement to win the NBA Playoffs MVP award is to win games. It’s not too hard to figure out that you’re out of the running for the award if your team gets knocked out of the postseason in the first or second round of the playoffs.
One thing we know for sure is that Dwyane Wade won’t be repeating as MVP this season. Wade’s Miami Heat have already been eliminated by the Chicago Bulls in the opening round as Miami’s repeat chances were trampled by the running of the Bulls.
The MVP favorites before the playoffs began looked to be Dirk Nowitzki in Dallas and Steve Nash in Phoenix. Early on in the opening round Nowitzki’s stock has plummeted after Dallas fell behind to Golden State. Nowitzki still has time to put together an MVP-caliber run if he can pick up his game and lead the Mavericks past the Warriors and back to the NBA finals.
Nash already has a pair of regular-season MVP trophies in his house, but the Suns are still looking to get over the hump in the playoffs. If this is finally the Suns’ year – and it might be with Dallas struggling – Nash may yet have to clear some more space in his trophy case. Even though he’s surrounded by talent on the Suns’ roster (Amare Stoudemire, Shawn Marion), Nash is the standout player on the floor for Phoenix and would likely be the MVP recipient for a winning Suns’ squad. Nash may have some competition from sixth man Leandro Barbosa. The Suns’ sharp-shooting guard has come through in the clutch for Phoenix during the regular season and in the playoffs this year, and could draw some attention if he continues to exceed expectations in the postseason.
If you’re looking for a real dark horse for MVP winner take a closer look at the Warriors. If Golden State can find a way to get through Dallas in the opening round, who’s to say they won’t be able to go all the way? If that happens the MVP could end up in the lap of either Baron Davis or Jason Richardson. Both players put up MVP-caliber type numbers for Golden State, but Davis has been more consistent so far in the postseason and could hold a slight edge over Richardson.
What do you know about Churchill Downs?
The grand-daddy of all race tracks first opened its doors to the public way back in 1875. At that age it should more reasonably be called the great grand-daddy of all race tracks.
The racetrack was named after John and Henry Churchill who leased 80 acres of land that the Downs was built on to their nephew, Colonel M. Lewis Clark. The track’s most famous race, the Kentucky Derby, was first held the same year the track opened in 1875. The first Derby winner was Aristides, who was ridden by jockey Oliver Lewis.
The Downs has played witness to some of the most spectacular moments in horse racing, including the blazing record-setting track time set by eventual Triple Crown winner Secretariat in 1973. Secretariat’s record-time was 1:59.40 and he was the first horse to post a winning time in the Derby that was under two minutes. Only one horse since has posted a time under two minutes, but Monarchos’ time of 1:59:97 set in 2001 was still slower than the great Secretariat.
Churchill Downs has gone through a number of renovations and upgraded over the years but it still holds many of its old charms, including the infamous twin spires atop the grandstands that have been a permanent part of the Downs’ skyline since they were built in 1895. Today, the Downs covers 147 acres and boasts a seating capacity of 51,000. However, on Derby day the crowd of spectators can top 140,000 because of standing-room only admissions around the paddock and infield. One of the Downs’ biggest renovation projects took place between 2001 and 2005 when $121 million was spent to replace the clubhouse, add luxury suites and refurbish the twin spires, among other projects.
The Churchill Downs main dirt track measures one mile in length and surrounds an inside turf track that is 7/8 of a mile long. The racing season at the Downs is divided among two meets. The Spring Meet begins one week before the Derby (the first Saturday in May) and finishes up in early July. The Fall Meet starts up in late October and runs until Thanksgiving week in November.
Does anything surprise us anymore?
If you’ve followed the NBA for any length of time, you’ve learned to expect the unexpected. Teams seemingly coming out of nowhere to make the playoffs. Role players masquerading as superstars. Just about the only thing you can count on: The dancers get hotter every year.
Looking specifically at the postseason, the fact that the Toronto Raptors seized the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference was a pleasant surprise for fans up north. But it was an idea that was introduced gradually throughout the season – at least to those paying attention – as the new-look Raptors kept improving. Starting the season at 7-14 (11-10 against the spread), Toronto worked its way up the standings, first into playoff contention, then into the upper reaches of the Eastern standings.
On the other side of the coin, the Indiana Pacers were just awful. Their 35-47 finish (38-42-2 ATS) was their worst performance in a decade. The Pacers certainly don’t lack for talent. Good health is another matter; Jermaine O’Neal missed 13 games, and Marquis Daniels, who Indiana desperately needed to step up at shooting guard after the big trade with Golden State, played just one game in March before bowing out for the season.
My vote for biggest playoff surprise of the year, though, is the Miami Heat making it in. They looked like a strong candidate for a disappointing season after making virtually no changes in the offseason. But the injury to Dwyane Wade actually forced Miami out of its doldrums. The Heat scooped up Eddie Jones off the waiver wire and went 16-7 (14-8-1 ATS) without Wade in the lineup, winning the Southeast Division in the process. Now they just have to figure out how to beat the Chicago Bulls. I’ll be surprised again if they do.
You’re not hearing a whole lot about LeBron and the Cavs this year. That lack of attention may be just what King James needs to finally get it done in the playoffs. The Cavs have a cakewalk versus the Wizards in the first round, but they had better not get too lax or they could get a surprise in Round 2.
Wade led the Heat to their first championship last year. (Sorry Shaq, but that’s just how it is.) Wade’s return from a separated should gives the Heat a chance to repeat, but it also places big question mark on Wade. Is he really 100 percent, or will his injured shoulder keep the Heat from getting back to the promised land?
If the Warriors are going to beat the Mavericks than their best players really have to be their best players. That means Richardson and Davis need to play the games of their lives. Davis delivered in Game 1 and now he’ll either have to keep it up or get a helping hand from Richardson.
Bryant scored a whopping 39 points in Game 1 versus Phoenix and it was seen as a disappointing performance. For the Lakers to win Kobe may have to get on another 50-point scoring streak. If he can do that he’ll definitely be someone you don’t want to take your eyes off during the playoffs.
The terrible twosome worked together in Denver’s first playoff game and it netted the Nuggets an upset win over the Spurs. Iverson and Anthony are possibly the most dangerous scoring duo in the playoffs this year. If they perform up to their immense potential and get a little help from the Nuggets’ front court, there’s no telling how far Denver might be able to go. These two are also worth watching because you never know when one of them might explode with another temper tantrum.
Part Two: Washington vs. Cleveland; Chicago vs. Miami
Washington (7) vs. Cleveland (2)
The Washington Wizards that earned a playoff spot during the regular season are in no way the same squad that will take on the Cleveland Cavaliers in the opening round.
To say Washington has been hurt by injuries heading into the playoffs would be a gross understatement. The Wizards will somehow try to compete versus the Cavs without two of their Top 3 scorers, Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler. Arenas was averaging 28.5 points a game before a knee injury ended his season early. Without Arenas’ scoring and clutch shooting, the Wizards will be toast.
The Cavaliers knocked off Washington 4-2 in the first round of the playoffs last year. Against a depleted Wizards squad this year they should be thinking sweep. LeBron James and Co. should use this series as a tuneup for what should be a much bigger challenge in the second round.
Chicago (5) vs. Miami (4)
The Chicago Bulls and Miami Heat series is also a rematch of last year’s opening-round series. The Heat dropped the Bulls 4-2 last season on route to their first-ever NBA championship.
The Bulls hope to change things around this year, and they added Ben Wallace during the offseason to an already-stellar defensive unit. Chicago has a number of young potent scorers in Luol Deng, Ben Gordon and Kirk Hinrich. If the three of them can find their range early and keep it throughout the series, the Bulls could advance to the second round for the first time since No. 23 was running the show.
The Heat are the team that no one wanted to face in the opening round. Miami may have looked weak during parts of the regular season but this is the playoffs, and with Shaq and Dwyane Wade both healthy the Heat are still a threat to repeat as champs. Wade is coming off a separated shoulder that was supposed to keep him out the rest of the season, and his performance will end up deciding the Heat’s playoff fate.
Part One: Orlando vs. Detroit; New Jersey vs. Toronto
Orlando (8) vs. Detroit (1)
If the regular season means anything in this series, the Orlando Magic’s first trip back to the playoffs since 2003 should be a short one. The Detroit Pistons and Magic clashed four times during the regular season and Detroit came out on top every time.
Detroit boasts a solid lineup that includes a brilliant starting five made up of Richard Hamilton, Chauncey Billups, Rasheed Wallace, Tayshaun Prince and Chris Webber. All five players can score when they have to, and provide stellar defense.
The Magic roster is young and lacks playoff experience. The youthful core of the Magic’s lineup, Dwight Howard, Jameer Nelson and Hedo Turkoglu is held in check by the veteran presence of Grant Hill and Bo Outlaw. Orlando has a number of former Pistons on their squad, including Hill, Darko Milicic and Carlos Arroyo, but they still pale in comparison to the players wearing Pistons’ jerseys right now.
New Jersey (6) vs. Toronto (3)
The last time the Toronto Raptors made the playoffs they were led by Vince Carter. If they hope to make it anywhere in the postseason this time around, they’ll have to go through their former franchise player.
That task will be within the purview of Toronto’s new All-Star Chris Bosh. Bosh led the Raptors in scoring and rebounding this season and he’ll be flanked by some pretty good talent, including point guard T.J. Ford, shooting guard Anthony Parker and improving rookie Andrea Bargnani. The only remaining Raptor from the successful Carter years is Morris Peterson, who will try to provide some pop off the bench.
The New Jersey Nets’ biggest threat is their big three of Carter, Jason Kidd and Richard Jefferson. Carter and Jefferson will likely provide the bulk of the scoring (with Bostjan Nahbar also getting in on the act), while Kidd should provide double-digit assists every night. The Nets could live or die by how Carter handles himself while getting booed senseless by the Toronto fans. If Carter falters it will be up to Jefferson to pick up the slack, or the Nets could be done early.
Betting on the NBA playoffs puts you closer to the action. Trust me. It makes watching the games that much more fun.
Well, that looks like $103 million well spent.
The Boston Red Sox paid the Seibu Lions $51 million just to enter contract negotiations with star pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka. Then they signed him to a six-year, $52-million deal with another $8 million or so in incentives. That might look like a bargain come October.
The Red Sox are 6-1 on the futures market to win the World Series; only the New York Yankees have shorter odds coming out of the American League at 11/2. Pitching is the big question mark for both clubs. Boston, though, has already gotten good mileage out of Matsuzaka – over 100 pitches in each of his first three starts, with 24 strikeouts, five walks and just six earned runs over that span.
Being a product of the Japanese system, Matsuzaka could probably throw twice as many pitches without his arm falling off. You could say the same for Tim Wakefield and his knuckleball. The onus will be on Josh Beckett and Curt Schilling to stay healthy. So far, so good. They’ve been every bit as potent as Sox fans could hope for. Julian Tavarez hasn’t, but as a fifth starter, his spot in the rotation comes up less frequently and could easily be replaced.
The bullpen remains a concern, of course, but having their starters go deep into the game allows the Sox to mask that weakness. And we haven’t even talked about their batting order. It’s actually struggling right now with an OPS of .726, but you know that Manny Ramirez will eventually heat up to the same level (or better) that David Ortiz and J.D. Drew are playing at.
Yes, the Sox are going to get even better this year. And they’re already near the top of a parity-stricken American League at 9-5, good for a profit of nearly three units on the moneyline. Looks like that horrible three-year curse might finally be lifted.
Buffalo, New Jersey or Ottawa?
Those three Eastern clubs are head and shoulders above the rest of the conference. And it is very likely that one of them will be playing in the Stanley Cup finals. But which one? Will it be the waterbug Sabres, the cult-like Devils, or the bridesmaid Senators? At press time, Buffalo remained the Eastern team with the shortest Cup odds at 9-2, followed by New Jersey at 7-1 and the Sens at 8-1.
Buffalo has already shown some warts in its first-round series with the New York Islanders. Although the work of Rick DiPietro between the pipes is the most commonly cited reason for New York winning Game 2, the Sabres have not been playing with their usual zip. They’re not getting to loose pucks quickly enough, and their passes aren’t as crisp as they should be. Buffalo netminder Ryan Miller also took some heat for allowing two early goals in Saturday’s 3-2 loss. That may have been unfair, but it does bring attention to the difference in goaltending talent between Miller and DiPietro.
The Sabres have every chance to shake off their lethargy and put away the Isles, especially after Monday night’s 3-2 win on Long Island. Getting a shot at Lord Stanley’s silverware is another story. Martin Brodeur is even higher up the food chain than DiPietro. Brodeur wasn’t at his sharpest early in his series versus the Tampa Bay Lightning, but he could wear a foam finger instead of a glove and still outperform anyone the Lightning put in goal, Monday night’s 3-2 win by Tampa Bay notwithstanding.
As for the Senators, they’ve already shown what they can do against the Pittsburgh Penguins, a team that is still listed at 12-1 to win the Cup. Ottawa is out-hitting the Pens, churning out four lines, and taking advantage of Evgeni Malkin’s lack of playoff fortitude. The Senators have the stuff of champions; then again, we’ve said that before. Call them the Atlanta Braves of the NHL – which is a good thing. Atlanta did win a World Series, after all.
The Senators are poised to follow suit.
It doesn’t look like there will be a Barbaro in this year’s Kentucky Derby. This year’s field of three-year-olds is packed so full of potential that the oddsmakers might have a hard time nailing down a true favorite, while bettors may find a dart and a dartboard marks the easiest way to pick a winner.
The immensely talented field starts with Todd Pletcher’s pack of wild horses. Pletcher could have up to six horses in the Derby field, but right now only three of them look like real contenders. Headlining that list of studs is Circular Quay. The fiery colt is coming off a big victory in the Louisiana Derby that could vault him to the front of the favorites pack.
While Circular Quay is grabbing a lot of the attention right now, don’t forget about Any Given Saturday and Scat Daddy. Any Given Saturday started off the year with a win in the Sam F. Davis Stakes and also has impressive performances in the Tampa Bay Derby (2nd) and Wood Memorial (3rd). Scat Daddy flashed his blazing speed in the Florida Derby late last month when he left the rest of the field in his dust.
If this turns out not to be Pletcher’s year once again, there’s a good chance the winner’s circle will belong to either Steve Ausmussen, Barclay Tagg or Carl Nafzger.
Ausmussen’s prize thoroughbred this year is Curlin. The Arkansas Derby was Curlin’s coming out party earlier this month as he added his name to the contenders list after posting a record-breaking victory in the race.
Tagg has a proven winner on his hands in Nobiz Like Shobiz. The thunderous colt already has victories this year at the Wood Memorial and Holy Bull Stakes, but it was a disappointing third-place finish at the Fountain of Youth Stakes that has people wondering if there really is Nobiz Like Shobiz.
Nafzger could have them all beat with his horse Street Sense. Street Sense won last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and started off with another win earlier this year at the Tampa Bay Derby. Street Sense finished a close second at the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes earlier this month, but don’t let that fool you into thinking this horse isn’t a winner.
Good?! They’re grrrrreat!
I think I’ve fallen in love with a basketball team. Hey, at 33-1 odds to win the NBA championship, the Toronto Raptors are easy to fall in love with. It’s like your fantasy date arriving at your front door with a large pizza and a six-pack. Make it 12.
This is reality, though. The Raptors are capable of beating anyone. I’m not saying they’re better than the Dallas Mavericks – but they might be over the course of a seven-game series. Dallas is 7-5 to win the title, by the way. If you’re going to play the NBA futures market, you’re not going to find much value in Big D. Cast your eyes northward instead.
There are so many off-court factors that make Toronto a mouthwatering value pick. One, it’s Toronto. Very few Raptors games make it onto American television screens. Two, the Raptors were just lousy for a while before cleaning house this offseason. Three, the new players they brought in were from the Euroleague, guys like Anthony Parker and Jorge Garbajosa. You don’t see Nike or Reebok knocking on their doors. These all contribute to a general level of ignorance about how good the Raptors really are.
So here are some cold, hard numbers. Toronto is 38-19 straight up and 37-19-1 against the spread since mid-December. The Raps have five players scoring in double figures. They commit the third-fewest turnovers in the league at 13 per 100 possessions. They’re sixth in true shooting percentage (factoring in free throws and 3-pointers). And they just keep getting better.
Bryan Colangelo has a keen eye for talent. As the season has progressed, players like Joey Graham (granted, one of Rob Babcock’s draft selections) and Kris Humphries have improved by leaps and bounds, keeping Toronto competitive despite a number of injuries. And the Juan Dixon-Fred Jones trade looks like a winner; Dixon is scoring 12.1 points per game in Toronto, mostly in a reserve capacity.
But you really have to see these guys. You can see it in their play – heck, you can see it in their interviews. Toronto is playing basketball “the right way.”
Now, where’s that pizza?
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