If you’re looking for a lock in 2007, look no further than the Rugby World Cup.

Don’t worry if you didn’t get the joke. Rugby isn’t exactly the most popular sport in North America, so chances are you aren’t familiar with some of the terminology. Just be thankful we didn’t make a joke about hookers. A rugby union team (not to be confused with rugby league) has 15 players, including two locks, a hooker, a loosehead prop, and so forth.

You don’t need to know these things to place a reasonably sharp bet for the 2007 Cup – although it certainly helps. What you do need to know is that rugby is extremely popular across the former British Commonwealth. You may have heard about the New Zealand All Blacks; rugby union is the country’s national sport, and the All Blacks are their national team. This year’s squad is ranked No. 1 in the world by the International Rugby Board. They’re also heavy 2-5 favorites at this autumn’s World Cup.

That chalk is justified. The No. 2 team in the world is France; earlier this month at the Iveco Series, New Zealand beat the French 42-11 and 61-10 in two separate contests on Kiwi soil. Think of a rugby score like an NFL score, and you get the idea just how potent these All Blacks are.

The closest thing New Zealand has to a rival is South Africa. The Springboks are second on the Cup odds list at 6-1, and if the All Blacks are just too chalky for your taste, South Africa is the place to be. At last year’s Philips Tri Nations event, the Springboks split a pair of home games with the All Blacks, the only blemish on New Zealand’s 15-1 record in 2006. The 2007 World Cup is taking place in France (9-1), so there won’t be a home-field advantage for the Springboks to exploit.

The Cup opens Sept. 7, so you have some time to familiarize yourself with the teams in question. As in soccer and cricket, these are big betting markets with plenty of “punters” to feed your bankroll. Just watch out for that blindside flanker.

What makes Tiger Woods the 11/4 favorite at this week’s U.S. Open? The same two things that make any champion: breeding and training.

Now that the Triple Crown has come and gone, let’s take a page from our horseplayer book and look Tiger Woods in the teeth. Woods is the son of Earl Woods, a U.S. Army Special Forces lieutenant colonel of mixed ancestry, and Kultida Punsawad, also of mixed ancestry. They met while Earl Woods was serving in Thailand during the Vietnam War. Those are some impressive bloodlines.

But talent isn’t everything. You also need character, and Earl Woods had a serious passion for golf. He was committed to turning his son into the best golfer that ever lived, starting at the tender age of two. That may sound like a tragedy waiting to happen; however, Earl wasn’t your typical nightmare “Sports Dad” trying to live vicariously through his offspring. “My dad was my best friend and greatest role model,” Tiger said last year after Earl succumbed to cancer at the age of 74. “He was an amazing dad, coach, mentor, soldier, husband and friend. I wouldn’t be where I am today without him.”

The apple doesn’t fall too far from the tree. Like his father, Tiger’s charisma is off the charts – just ask his wife, Swedish bombshell Elin Nordegren (now Elin Woods), or the many golfers on the PGA Tour who have gone on record saying how much they enjoy playing alongside Woods. That character took Tiger from appearing on The Mike Douglas Show at age 2, where he putted against Bob Hope, to winning three straight U.S. Amateur titles by age 20. And that’s just his amateur career. Woods has won the Masters four times, the British Open and PGA Championship three times apiece, and the U.S. Open twice.

Mr. and Mrs. Woods are expecting the couple’s first child this summer. Tiger may have to miss the British Open, but it will be well worth it to see if Tiger proves to be the same kind of father Earl was.

Odds to win the 2007 US Open

The U.S. Open returns to Oakmont Country Club for the eighth time this week and the PGA’s top pros better have their best putting performances ready, and their sand wedges popping out of their bags.

Located in the Pittsburgh suburb of Oakmont, Pennsylvania, Oakmont is considered to be one of the top courses in America. It is also considered to be one of the toughest. Oakmont is known for its very large and extremely fast greens. Golf legend Sam Snead summed it up when he said he once tried to mark his ball at Oakmont, but the coin slid off the green.

Mercifully, the greens won’t be quite as fast this year as they have been in the past, as the USGA has told Oakmont that the green speeds must measure between 13 and 13.5 feet on the stimpmeter. In the past Oakmont has usually measured 15 feet on the stimpmeter, while the average golf course tends to have speeds between seven and 12 feet.

Aside from the slick greens, Oakmont is also known for its multiple sand traps. According to the official Oakmont website the course has 180 deep bunkers, which includes the infamous Church Pews bunker. The huge Church Pews bunker is 100 yards long and 40 yards wide, and has 12 grass-covered ridges running through it. The giant bunker comes into play on both the third and fourth holes.

For regular members the Oakmont course has a par of 71. But for the U.S. Open the No. 9 hole will be played as a long par 4 instead of a par 5, which drops the par down to 70. The last time the U.S. Open was played there in 1994, Ernie Els won his first major championship after defeating Loren Roberts and Colin Montgomerie in a Monday playoff. The other U.S. Open tournaments played at Oakmont were won by Larry Nelson in 1983, Johnny Miller in 1973, Jack Nicklaus in 1962 and Tommy Armour in 1927.

The most famous of those wins was by Miller in 1973. In the final round Miller shot an amazing 63, which has since been labeled “the greatest round of the 20th century.”

Get all your PGA golf betting odds here!

Hate the high scores at the U.S. Open? Blame Johnny Miller.

In 1973, Miller fired a final round 63 at Oakmont to finish at 5-under and win the Open by a single stroke over John Schlee. One year later, USGA officials got their revenge. They turned the 1974 Open into “Massacre at Winged Foot.” Hale Irwin hacked and slashed his way through deep rough to a 7-over, good enough to finish in first place.

It’s been a dog’s breakfast for golfers ever since. And when the US Open returns to Oakmont this week, rest assured the course will be much less forgiving than it was to Miller. Exhibit A: the No. 8, which will play as a par-three of as many as 288 yards depending on pin placement. No wonder top golfers are anticipating a championship score of several strokes over par.

How will Oakmont’s layout affect bettors? Two ways jump off the page. First and foremost, putting acumen will be at a premium. The greens at Oakmont are insufferably fast. Even with officials stepping in to slow the greens down a bit this week, they will still read between 13–13.5 ft on the stimpmeter. That’s still much slicker than most courses. Golfers will be praying for rain this week to make the greens softer; keep an eye on the weather forecast to see if their prayers are working.

The other train of thought is that Oakmont will level the playing field, as if the course will swallow up anyone from Tiger Woods (14-5) to Stephen Ames (100-1) with the same gusto. There may actually be some merit to that. Here’s a list of the most recent Open winners to finish at even or worse: Geoff Ogilvy, Michael Campbell, Lee Janzen and Corey Pavin. Not a lot of chalk there.

(*Read “Oakmont Figures to be a Brutal Test for US Open Hopefuls” for more!)

Following that logic, perhaps this would be a good time to forgo betting on Woods and grabbing someone with even better putting skills, like Phil Mickelson at 8-1. Or you could venture farther down the odds list for a value pick like Zach Johnson at 40-1. He’s not bad with a putter either, and he’s coming off a breakthrough win at the Masters. Either way, expect to see a lot of bent mashies this week at Oakmont.

Best to get your US Open odds while they’re hot!

The rising summer heat must be shortening the fuse on baseball managers, because a number of them have exploded recently. A couple of major league managers have been ordered to take anger management courses in the past, and judging by the numerous videos of managerial dustups flying around the internet this week, some GMs may want to recommend placidity training to their current managers.

There have been many famous hotheaded managers throughout the years, from John McGraw to Earl Weaver to Leo Durocher, but the current crop of crazies is led by Lou Piniella, Ozzie Guillen and, on occasion, the venerable Bobby Cox. Piniella’s latest tirade came last week when he covered umpire Mark Wegner in dirt while parading his screaming, crimson face all around the field.

Guillen can’t seem to go more than a week without doing something that gets him in trouble on or off the field. Whether it’s calling out umpires, his opponents or even his own players, or sounding off about baseball’s unfair treatment of Latinos, Guillen always seems to get his two cents in. Cox, meanwhile, should have very little to complain about considering his Braves had won their division every year for more than a decade before last season. Even through all that winning Cox managed to find lots to complain about, because he’s second all-time on the ejections list – only one game behind McGraw with 130 early trips to the showers.

There are plenty of angry managers on the way up from the minors to replace the great orators and beraters once Piniella and Cox call it a career. Mississippi Braves manager Phillip Wellman made all the highlight reels last week with his out-of-control tirade that include tossing bases and a rosin bag grenade at the ump. And even that colorful outburst ranks second to Asheville manager Joe Mikulik’s lengthy meltdown last season.

So, does the current crop of baseball managers need some time with the psychiatrist? If you compare current managers’ actions with some of the outlandish behavior of the past, then the answer is a definitive no. Enter “Earl Weaver” and “Manager’s Corner” in any internet search engine to hear an audio clip of a manager in real need of anger management. And that’s nothing compared to the ornery McGraw, who got in fights with other managers, players, umpires and owners. When Piniella stops kicking dirt on Wegner and resorts to punching him in the face, you can sign him up for anger management.

I can think of at least three good reasons to watch the Belmont Stakes this Saturday.

Street Sense might not be in the picture, but thanks to trainer Todd Pletcher, we still have three gifted thoroughbreds to form a trifecta. Pletcher’s prize filly Rags to Riches joins Preakness winner Curlin and Hard Spun among the top three favorites at Big Sandy. With only four other horses in the field, and none (outside, perhaps, of Tiago) with much of a chance to win the Belmont, why not a trifecta?

Here’s how I see it going down:

1. Curlin (6-5): This is one special horse. Look at that Preakness win, putting away Hard Spun and posting a 111 Beyer. I don’t see any reason to bet any other horse to win this race. The proof is in the pudding: five career races (all this year), four victories, and third at the Derby.

2. Hard Spun (5-2): It’s much more of a toss-up this Saturday between second and third place. Hard Spun has a chance to win, but to do so, he’ll have to show more stamina than he’s ever displayed. This is a mile-and-a-half we’re talking about here.

3. Rags to Riches (3-1): I’m skeptical about the filly’s chances to beat the boys on the big stage. I’ll be more than happy to be proved wrong – this is a beautiful horse with great bloodlines and should cover the 12 furlongs with no problem.

Many horseplayers will choose to put Tiago (10-1) in the trifecta to generate some value. Can’t argue with that – I’d drop Hard Spun in that case, given the potential for him to fade down the extended stretch.

I hate to beat a live horse like that, but Hard Spun has yet to win anything longer than the 1 1/8-mile Lane’s End Stakes.

I think I may have talked myself into believing in the King James Version of the NBA Finals.

In this telling of the story, LeBron James slices and dices his way through San Antonio’s defense, just like he did during the regular season, when the Cavs won both their games against the Spurs. It’s an easy story for a basketball fan to fall in love with. James’ star is ascending, San Antonio’s dirty style of play is growing tiresome, and most importantly for our purposes, the Cavs are +325 underdogs to beat the Spurs and win their first-ever NBA title. (Check for your NBA odds at the Bodog Sportsbook. )

But in comes the Greek chorus, reminding us about the inconvenient truth of the situation. The Spurs are a proven commodity, having won the championship three times since Tim Duncan turned pro. James is no saint himself; he’s become expert at the slight, almost imperceptible tug of the uniform from behind as his opponent drives the lane. And the Cavs are sizeable underdogs because James doesn’t have nearly the same level of talent surrounding him that Duncan enjoys.

I wouldn’t hesitate to bet on the Cavs at this point, given the potential payoff. But to pick them straight up to win the title? The immediate reaction is to recoil. Until you look at Daniel Gibson. Then you fall in love all over again.

Gibson was a highly regarded freshman with the Texas Longhorns in 2004-05, but his numbers stagnated in his sophomore year, even as he cut down on his turnover rate. That, and his 6-foot-2 frame, caused enough scouts to peg Gibson as a tweener, and he slipped into the second round of the draft. But what he lacks in raw athleticism, Gibson makes up for in poise, determination (he insisted on playing for Cleveland alongside James) and a devastating 3-point shot.

I believe in the Gibson who rose up and helped the Cavs eliminate the Detroit Pistons. I believe he will do it again in the Finals. (And…you’re welcome!)

With Kentucky Derby champion Street Sense out of the Belmont Stakes, that leaves Preakness winner Curlin and Derby runner-up Hard Spun as the favorites. Curlin defeated Street Sense by a nose in the Preakness taking away any chance of a Triple Crown attempt, but there’s still a chance that bettors could cash in at Belmont Park even if Triple Crown fans have no real reason to watch.

Aside from the two favorites already mentioned, the other known Belmont entrants includes Tiago, Slew’s Tizzy, Imawildandcrazyguy and Digger. Todd Pletcher is expected to enter either Circular Quay or Rags to Riches (or maybe even both), but we won’t know which one until it’s formally announced later this week.

Both Tiago and Imawildandcrazyguy raced in the Derby, and both sat out the Preakness. Tiago was a disappointing seventh in the Derby, but won the Santa Anita Derby earlier this season and is a contender to upset at Belmont Park. Imawildandcrazyguy came in fourth at the Derby, but hasn’t raced since. He should be well-rested and could also be a big upset contender this weekend.

Slew’s Tizzy probably won’t register on most bettors’ radar, but he should. According to reports Slew’s Tizzy has been running some superb workouts lately and they’re being compared to the workouts he was delivering just before he won the Lone Star Derby earlier this year.

The biggest long shot will likely be Digger. The chances of Digger pulling off a huge upset in the Belmont looks highly unlikely, as the last time Digger raced he was the runner-up in the Charles Town allowance.

These overrated lists just aren’t as good as people say they are.

We’re hearing a lot about “underrated” and “overrated” baseball players these days. Especially the latter, and especially in New York, where the Yankees are in last place in the American League East at press time. It’s easy to pick on the high-paid stars on the team everyone cheers against. But these lists always seem to be missing a certain type of player – the type that people just fall in love with.

You know who we’re talking about. Handicappers and seamheads, say it with me: “David Eckstein.” For a shortstop with a .350 on-base percentage and no power to speak of, this fan-favorite can’t seem to do any wrong. Here’s what Eric Neel wrote about Eckstein last week for ESPN.com: “He barely can throw the ball across the infield, and he chokes the bat like a T-baller. But he comes up big, comes up swinging, and is humble and gracious about every miraculous accomplishment.” Is this baseball, or one of those 1960s Disney TV movies starring Kurt Russell?

There are two lessons here. One, even if you’re not actually good at something, just have a positive attitude about it and the public will let it slide. Two, since people will let it slide, these players and the teams that employ them are just begging to be faded. Exhibit A: the Chicago White Sox. Under the misapprehension that “small ball” was the key to their 2005 World Series victory, the Sox are 24-24 and going nowhere fast.

This is a team that already had Scott Podsednik (.379 slugging percentage), and then decided to sign Darin Erstad for 2007. Erstad had that one freakishly good season (.950 OPS, 240 hits) for the Anaheim Angels in 2000, but fell back to his mediocre level the following year and has never looked back. Imagine how bad the Pale Hose would be if Podsednik were healthy and roaming the outfield next to Erstad.

Regionals Preview: June Madness is Here!

They have a 64-team tournament, a bracket, and their own NCAA selection committee. But the College World Series doesn’t get nearly as much attention as the men’s basketball Tournament. It probably never will, but things are slowly coming to life on the diamond, thanks to ESPN’s coverage of both the men’s and women’s tourneys.

The bracket is a little different from what the NCAA uses during March Madness. The 64 teams are divided into 16 four-team regionals, where the “double elimination” format is used. The 16 regional winners advance to the “super regionals” and play a best-of-three series to determine the eight clubs that will go to the “World Series” in Omaha, Neb. The regionals are scheduled to get underway Friday afternoon.

Baseball needs good weather (or at least a dome), so programs in the southern United States have a distinct advantage. USC has 12 championships since the CWS began in 1947; Texas has six, and leads the nation in CWS appearances at 32. This year will make it 33.

Although they’re not playing at Disch-Falk Field (currently under renovations), the Longhorns will enjoy something close to a home-field advantage when they open Friday against the Brown Bears. These teams join UC Irvine and Wake Forest in the Round Rock Regional, Round Rock being just 20 miles north of the UT campus in Austin. The winner will advance to a super regional in Corpus Christi, a three-hour drive south to the Gulf coast. It’s not home, but it’s close.

Texas is on a mission this year after claiming the 2005 championship, then missing the 2006 CWS altogether. Many of the winners from two years ago are still on the Longhorns; they are loaded for bear on the mound and in the batters’ box. But they’ll have to get past Arizona State and the 2006 finalists from North Carolina on the road to redemption. That’s a tough steer to rope.

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