The 2008 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe is shaping up to be one of the best in years. There are currently 115 horses that bookmakers have odds on winning Paris’ most prestigious race. It’s still a bit early to call, but the favorites Zarkava and Montmartre are currently at 7/2. Either one would be a good pick.
Curlin may make an appearance at the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, if his owners don’t decide to put him in the Breeders’ Cup Classic against Big Brown. Curlin is getting 16/1 to win, but I’d rather wait until we see the results of the prep race he runs after arriving in Europe later this summer.
New Approach is a good pick at 7/1, and some books have him at 6/1. Also Soldier of Fortune and Duke of Marmalade could pull off the win. Both are at 9/2 at this point in the betting.
I can think of at least three good reasons to watch the Belmont Stakes this Saturday.
Street Sense might not be in the picture, but thanks to trainer Todd Pletcher, we still have three gifted thoroughbreds to form a trifecta. Pletcher’s prize filly Rags to Riches joins Preakness winner Curlin and Hard Spun among the top three favorites at Big Sandy. With only four other horses in the field, and none (outside, perhaps, of Tiago) with much of a chance to win the Belmont, why not a trifecta?
Here’s how I see it going down:
1. Curlin (6-5): This is one special horse. Look at that Preakness win, putting away Hard Spun and posting a 111 Beyer. I don’t see any reason to bet any other horse to win this race. The proof is in the pudding: five career races (all this year), four victories, and third at the Derby.
2. Hard Spun (5-2): It’s much more of a toss-up this Saturday between second and third place. Hard Spun has a chance to win, but to do so, he’ll have to show more stamina than he’s ever displayed. This is a mile-and-a-half we’re talking about here.
3. Rags to Riches (3-1): I’m skeptical about the filly’s chances to beat the boys on the big stage. I’ll be more than happy to be proved wrong – this is a beautiful horse with great bloodlines and should cover the 12 furlongs with no problem.
Many horseplayers will choose to put Tiago (10-1) in the trifecta to generate some value. Can’t argue with that – I’d drop Hard Spun in that case, given the potential for him to fade down the extended stretch.
I hate to beat a live horse like that, but Hard Spun has yet to win anything longer than the 1 1/8-mile Lane’s End Stakes.
A lot of horse racing handicappers probably aren’t big fans of Street Sense today. According to all the historical data, Street Sense should not have won the Kentucky Derby last weekend.
The post-time favorite never wins the Derby. Street Sense did it, at 9/2. The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner has gone 0-for-23 in the Derby. Street Sense makes the new record 1-for-24. A horse with two or fewer prep races under his/her belt hasn’t won the Derby since Sunny Halo’s win in 1983. Street Sense snapped that streak too.
Street Sense won the Derby in fine form after looking down-and-out early on. Entering the first turn Street Sense was well back in 19th place out of 20 horses, but as the rest of the field started to slow down Street Sense maintained a furious pace. Jockey Calvin Borel kept Street Sense on the inside lane and maneuvered through the rest of the field until the leader, Hard Spun, was in his sights. Hard Spun moved to the outside and Street Sense displayed his incredible stamina and blistering speed by overtaking him on the inside. Street Sense would go on to win the 133rd Kentucky Derby by two lengths.
Street Sense’s time came in at 2:02:17 and he paid out $11.80/$6.40/$4.60. Hard Spun had to settle for second place and paid $9.80/$7, while Curlin was handed the first loss of his career, finishing third and paying $5.60.
It was another disappointing day for trainer Todd Pletcher, whose Derby record now stands at 0-for-19. Pletcher had a record-tying five horses in the Derby field, but they all came up short. Pletcher’s best finisher this year was Circular Quay, who came in a very disappointing sixth.
Two-out-of-three definitely isn’t bad for Street Sense’s trainer Carl Nafzger. In his long career Nafzger has only trained three horses that have raced in the Derby, but two of them have won the Run for the Roses. Nafzger’s first champion was Unbridled back in 1990, who coincidentally started in the same post position (seven) as Street Sense.