Does anything surprise us anymore?
If you’ve followed the NBA for any length of time, you’ve learned to expect the unexpected. Teams seemingly coming out of nowhere to make the playoffs. Role players masquerading as superstars. Just about the only thing you can count on: The dancers get hotter every year.
Looking specifically at the postseason, the fact that the Toronto Raptors seized the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference was a pleasant surprise for fans up north. But it was an idea that was introduced gradually throughout the season – at least to those paying attention – as the new-look Raptors kept improving. Starting the season at 7-14 (11-10 against the spread), Toronto worked its way up the standings, first into playoff contention, then into the upper reaches of the Eastern standings.
On the other side of the coin, the Indiana Pacers were just awful. Their 35-47 finish (38-42-2 ATS) was their worst performance in a decade. The Pacers certainly don’t lack for talent. Good health is another matter; Jermaine O’Neal missed 13 games, and Marquis Daniels, who Indiana desperately needed to step up at shooting guard after the big trade with Golden State, played just one game in March before bowing out for the season.
My vote for biggest playoff surprise of the year, though, is the Miami Heat making it in. They looked like a strong candidate for a disappointing season after making virtually no changes in the offseason. But the injury to Dwyane Wade actually forced Miami out of its doldrums. The Heat scooped up Eddie Jones off the waiver wire and went 16-7 (14-8-1 ATS) without Wade in the lineup, winning the Southeast Division in the process. Now they just have to figure out how to beat the Chicago Bulls. I’ll be surprised again if they do.
You’re not hearing a whole lot about LeBron and the Cavs this year. That lack of attention may be just what King James needs to finally get it done in the playoffs. The Cavs have a cakewalk versus the Wizards in the first round, but they had better not get too lax or they could get a surprise in Round 2.
Wade led the Heat to their first championship last year. (Sorry Shaq, but that’s just how it is.) Wade’s return from a separated should gives the Heat a chance to repeat, but it also places big question mark on Wade. Is he really 100 percent, or will his injured shoulder keep the Heat from getting back to the promised land?
If the Warriors are going to beat the Mavericks than their best players really have to be their best players. That means Richardson and Davis need to play the games of their lives. Davis delivered in Game 1 and now he’ll either have to keep it up or get a helping hand from Richardson.
Bryant scored a whopping 39 points in Game 1 versus Phoenix and it was seen as a disappointing performance. For the Lakers to win Kobe may have to get on another 50-point scoring streak. If he can do that he’ll definitely be someone you don’t want to take your eyes off during the playoffs.
The terrible twosome worked together in Denver’s first playoff game and it netted the Nuggets an upset win over the Spurs. Iverson and Anthony are possibly the most dangerous scoring duo in the playoffs this year. If they perform up to their immense potential and get a little help from the Nuggets’ front court, there’s no telling how far Denver might be able to go. These two are also worth watching because you never know when one of them might explode with another temper tantrum.
Part Two: Washington vs. Cleveland; Chicago vs. Miami
Washington (7) vs. Cleveland (2)
The Washington Wizards that earned a playoff spot during the regular season are in no way the same squad that will take on the Cleveland Cavaliers in the opening round.
To say Washington has been hurt by injuries heading into the playoffs would be a gross understatement. The Wizards will somehow try to compete versus the Cavs without two of their Top 3 scorers, Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler. Arenas was averaging 28.5 points a game before a knee injury ended his season early. Without Arenas’ scoring and clutch shooting, the Wizards will be toast.
The Cavaliers knocked off Washington 4-2 in the first round of the playoffs last year. Against a depleted Wizards squad this year they should be thinking sweep. LeBron James and Co. should use this series as a tuneup for what should be a much bigger challenge in the second round.
Chicago (5) vs. Miami (4)
The Chicago Bulls and Miami Heat series is also a rematch of last year’s opening-round series. The Heat dropped the Bulls 4-2 last season on route to their first-ever NBA championship.
The Bulls hope to change things around this year, and they added Ben Wallace during the offseason to an already-stellar defensive unit. Chicago has a number of young potent scorers in Luol Deng, Ben Gordon and Kirk Hinrich. If the three of them can find their range early and keep it throughout the series, the Bulls could advance to the second round for the first time since No. 23 was running the show.
The Heat are the team that no one wanted to face in the opening round. Miami may have looked weak during parts of the regular season but this is the playoffs, and with Shaq and Dwyane Wade both healthy the Heat are still a threat to repeat as champs. Wade is coming off a separated shoulder that was supposed to keep him out the rest of the season, and his performance will end up deciding the Heat’s playoff fate.
Part One: Orlando vs. Detroit; New Jersey vs. Toronto
Orlando (8) vs. Detroit (1)
If the regular season means anything in this series, the Orlando Magic’s first trip back to the playoffs since 2003 should be a short one. The Detroit Pistons and Magic clashed four times during the regular season and Detroit came out on top every time.
Detroit boasts a solid lineup that includes a brilliant starting five made up of Richard Hamilton, Chauncey Billups, Rasheed Wallace, Tayshaun Prince and Chris Webber. All five players can score when they have to, and provide stellar defense.
The Magic roster is young and lacks playoff experience. The youthful core of the Magic’s lineup, Dwight Howard, Jameer Nelson and Hedo Turkoglu is held in check by the veteran presence of Grant Hill and Bo Outlaw. Orlando has a number of former Pistons on their squad, including Hill, Darko Milicic and Carlos Arroyo, but they still pale in comparison to the players wearing Pistons’ jerseys right now.
New Jersey (6) vs. Toronto (3)
The last time the Toronto Raptors made the playoffs they were led by Vince Carter. If they hope to make it anywhere in the postseason this time around, they’ll have to go through their former franchise player.
That task will be within the purview of Toronto’s new All-Star Chris Bosh. Bosh led the Raptors in scoring and rebounding this season and he’ll be flanked by some pretty good talent, including point guard T.J. Ford, shooting guard Anthony Parker and improving rookie Andrea Bargnani. The only remaining Raptor from the successful Carter years is Morris Peterson, who will try to provide some pop off the bench.
The New Jersey Nets’ biggest threat is their big three of Carter, Jason Kidd and Richard Jefferson. Carter and Jefferson will likely provide the bulk of the scoring (with Bostjan Nahbar also getting in on the act), while Kidd should provide double-digit assists every night. The Nets could live or die by how Carter handles himself while getting booed senseless by the Toronto fans. If Carter falters it will be up to Jefferson to pick up the slack, or the Nets could be done early.
Betting on the NBA playoffs puts you closer to the action. Trust me. It makes watching the games that much more fun.
Good?! They’re grrrrreat!
I think I’ve fallen in love with a basketball team. Hey, at 33-1 odds to win the NBA championship, the Toronto Raptors are easy to fall in love with. It’s like your fantasy date arriving at your front door with a large pizza and a six-pack. Make it 12.
This is reality, though. The Raptors are capable of beating anyone. I’m not saying they’re better than the Dallas Mavericks – but they might be over the course of a seven-game series. Dallas is 7-5 to win the title, by the way. If you’re going to play the NBA futures market, you’re not going to find much value in Big D. Cast your eyes northward instead.
There are so many off-court factors that make Toronto a mouthwatering value pick. One, it’s Toronto. Very few Raptors games make it onto American television screens. Two, the Raptors were just lousy for a while before cleaning house this offseason. Three, the new players they brought in were from the Euroleague, guys like Anthony Parker and Jorge Garbajosa. You don’t see Nike or Reebok knocking on their doors. These all contribute to a general level of ignorance about how good the Raptors really are.
So here are some cold, hard numbers. Toronto is 38-19 straight up and 37-19-1 against the spread since mid-December. The Raps have five players scoring in double figures. They commit the third-fewest turnovers in the league at 13 per 100 possessions. They’re sixth in true shooting percentage (factoring in free throws and 3-pointers). And they just keep getting better.
Bryan Colangelo has a keen eye for talent. As the season has progressed, players like Joey Graham (granted, one of Rob Babcock’s draft selections) and Kris Humphries have improved by leaps and bounds, keeping Toronto competitive despite a number of injuries. And the Juan Dixon-Fred Jones trade looks like a winner; Dixon is scoring 12.1 points per game in Toronto, mostly in a reserve capacity.
But you really have to see these guys. You can see it in their play – heck, you can see it in their interviews. Toronto is playing basketball “the right way.”
Now, where’s that pizza?
You gotta win to get in.
This is a great time to be a basketball fan. The playoff races in both conferences are so competitive, and with so many different styles and strategies on display, you’d almost think you were watching March Madness. You can feel the adrenaline flowing as these teams try to ride the wave as deep into the playoffs as they can.
Well, it might be a while before fans in East Rutherford are jumping up and down in unison. The New Jersey Nets are losing the race to the bottom of the Eastern standings, going 7-4 straight up and 5-5-1 against the spread in their last 11 games. They don’t exactly inspire confidence, though. Check out what Richard Jefferson told the New York Post on Wednesday: “We [need] to beat the teams we feel we’re favored against, and hopefully can improve to the point where we can beat a team like Detroit, like Cleveland, like Chicago, like Washington.”
Hopefully. So let’s look instead at the four teams Jefferson admits are better and see if they have any merit as NBA title contenders. The Wizards lost Caron Butler on Sunday and Gilbert Arenas on Wednesday, so they’re dead in the water at 40-1 (at press time). Chicago (22-1), Cleveland (15-1) and Detroit (5-1) are all jockeying for the top seed in the East. The Cavs appear to be in the most danger of losing momentum, alternating wins and losses while fretting about LeBron James’ knee. Detroit is a machine, which leaves the Bulls (and the big heart of Ben Wallace) as the best candidates to get betting value out of their emotional late-season surge.
The Western race is much better from the standpoint of talent – no Nets here. But the top seeds are starting to settle in, which leaves only the Los Angeles Lakers (30-1) as viable momentum teams. Thanks to injuries to Lamar Odom and Luke Walton, the Lakers are still fighting off the Nuggets, Clippers, Warriors and Hornets just to make the playoffs. Those four teams are on a combined 25-15 run, but none has proven capable of keeping up that level of play. We know, on the other hand, what a healthy Lakers team can do – we saw it in last year’s playoffs. Phoenix certainly hasn’t forgotten.
Is their a sport that has more buzz words than basketball? Is there a word or phrase in basketball that doesn’t have at least one equivalent slang word or sports cliché devised by some clever sports writer or commentator?
You can grab a rebound or you can grab a ‘board’; you can shoot from three-point range or shoot from ‘downtown’; and a Shaquille O’Neal free throw is an air ball or it’s a ‘brick’. Those are only three of the endless basketball catch-phrases. These catch-phrases were new at one time though, and were part of the endless stream of basketball buzz words.
Although it seems impossible there was a time when the NCAA Tournament was not known as March Madness. Brent Musburger is generally regarded as the individual who first used that phrase in conjunction with the college tournament, using it during CBS Sports’ coverage of the tourney back in 1982. Before Musburger attached the phrase to college hoops, March Madness actually had a strange connection to hares. March Madness comes from the phrase ‘Mad as a March Hare’. In England, the phrase March Madness may refer to wasteful spending at the end of a budget year.
The most widespread buzz word in all of basketball this season has got to be ‘Greg Oden’. The seven-foot freshman at Ohio State is easily the talk of college basketball, and his name enters numerous pro basketball discussions as well since he seems predetermined to be the No. 1 pick in the next NBA draft. The word ‘Oden’ alone has replaced ‘lottery draft’ in the basketball lexicon for this season. If things go right for the Boston Celtics in the ping-pong ball draw, ‘Oden’ should become the buzz word in most of New England this summer. (Right now the buzz word in Boston is ‘Matsuzaka’.)
Another popular buzz word these days is “run-and-gun offense”. Insert ‘run-and-gun’ and ‘Phoenix Suns’ into any search engine to see what I mean. It only takes one high-profile journalist to use the phrase and pretty soon everybody’s doing it. What started with talk about the Suns’ fun style of play has turned into a repeated story about which team is trying to duplicate the Suns’ success with the run-and-gun. If Phoenix is able to run all the way to an NBA Championship, the term may earn a permanent place in the basketball lexicon.
Which has a bigger bang for your sportsbetting buck?
Pro basketball is rife with gifted athletes, sophisticated systems of play and a significant dose of predictability when it comes to forecasting the outcome of games on any given night, particularly when you factor in home-court advantage, the collective health of a team’s key players, and recent results.
But college basketball is where the real money can be made. Frankly, the college games are the easier of the two brands to handicap, especially when you delve in to the mid-majors and low majors where the lines can be particularly soft. In fact, only one of last year’s Top-10 ATS college basketball teams came from a major conference, and that was the national champion Florida Gators.
When you consider that there are more than 300 teams competing in the college basketball Division 1 ranks around the NCAA, and well over 80 percent of them have had lines posted so far this season, well, ‘thar’s got to be some gold in them thar hills’. Factoring in the sheer volume of betting lines, a sharp handicapper has ample opportunity to grind out a healthy profit.
But sharps still have to approach the college game differently than they would at the professional level. For example, the college athlete is a strange animal compared to his pro counterparts. His skills are less polished, his mental attitude is subject to all manner of distraction, and you never know when he might miss a game due to some bizarre rules infraction.
Coaching is therefore critical to a college basketball program’s success. Legends like Bobby Knight or Mike Krzyzewski draw talent to their school that arrives willing to blindly subscribe to an established system of play. Success breeds success, making it easier to predict the performance of the higher profile programs year after year.
Not that the pros aren’t worth looking at. Far from it; the inconsistency you see in the NBA from one season to the next is a potential goldmine for sharp cappers. Professional basketball players age and decline, and generally speaking, the bigger they are, the harder they fall. A veteran-laden team like the Miami Heat can go from national champions to scrambling for the playoffs at the snap of a finger – or a tendon.
Sportsbetting Info
Favorite Sportsbooks
Premium Sportsbooks
Our Friends
Featured Sportsbook
